A New Probe of the High-z BAO scale: BAO tomography With CMB ×\times LIM-Nulling Convergence

Standard rulers such as the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale serve as workhorses for precision tests of cosmology, enabling distance measurements that probe the geometry and expansion history of our Universe. Aside from BAO measurements from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), most standard ruler techniques operate at relatively low redshifts and depend on biased tracers of the matter density field. In a companion paper, we explored the scientific reach of nulling estimators, where CMB lensing convergence maps are cross-correlated with linear combinations of similar maps from line intensity mapping (LIM) to precisely null out the low-redshift contributions to CMB lensing. We showed that nulling estimators can be used to constrain the high redshift matter power spectrum and showed that this spectrum exhibits discernible BAO features. Here we propose using these features as a standard ruler at high redshifts that does not rely on biased tracers. Forecasting such a measurement at $z \sim 5$, we find that next-generation instruments will be able to constrain the BAO scale to percent-level precision at $7.2 \%$, while our futuristic observing scenario can constrain the BAO scale to $4\%$ precision. This constitutes a fundamentally new kind of BAO measurement during early epochs in our cosmic history.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2309.0647

Constraining Cosmology With the CMB ×\times LIM-Nulling Convergence

Lensing reconstruction maps from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide direct observations of the matter distribution of the universe without the use of a biased tracer. Such maps, however, constitute projected observables along the line of sight that are dominated by their low-redshift contributions. To cleanly access high-redshift information, Maniyar et al. showed that a linear combination of lensing maps from both CMB and line intensity mapping (LIM) observations can exactly null the low-redshift contribution to CMB lensing convergence. In this paper we explore the scientific returns of this nulling technique. We show that LIM-nulling estimators can place constraints on standard $\Lambda$CDM plus neutrino mass parameters that are competitive with traditional CMB lensing. Additionally, we demonstrate that as a clean probe of the high-redshift universe, LIM-nulling can be used for model-independent tests of cosmology beyond $\Lambda$CDM and as a probe of the high-redshift matter power spectrum.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figure

The population prevalence of solitary confinement

Solitary confinement is a severe form of incarceration closely associated with long-lasting psychological harm and poor post-release outcomes. Estimating the population prevalence, we find that 11% of all black men in Pennsylvania, born 1986 to 1989, were incarcerated in solitary confinement by age 32. Reflecting large racial disparities, the population prevalence is only 3.4% for Latinos and 1.4% for white men. About 9% of black men in the state cohort were held in solitary for more than 15 consecutive days, violating the United Nations standards for minimum treatment of incarcerated people. Nearly 1 in 100 black men experienced solitary for a year or longer by age 32. Racial disparities are similar for women, but rates are lower. A decomposition shows that black men’s high risk of solitary confinement stems primarily from their high imprisonment rate. Findings suggest that harsh conditions of U.S. incarceration have population-level effects on black men’s well-being.Published versio

Remote data collection speech analysis and prediction of the identification of Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers in people at risk for Alzheimer’s disease dementia: the Speech on the Phone Assessment (SPeAk) prospective observational study protocol

International audienceIntroduction Identifying cost-effective, non-invasive biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a clinical and research priority. Speech data are easy to collect, and studies suggest it can identify those with AD. We do not know if speech features can predict AD biomarkers in a preclinical population. Methods and analysis The Speech on the Phone Assessment (SPeAk) study is a prospective observational study. SPeAk recruits participants aged 50 years and over who have previously completed studies with AD biomarker collection. Participants complete a baseline telephone assessment, including spontaneous speech and cognitive tests. A 3-month visit will repeat the cognitive tests with a conversational artificial intelligence bot. Participants complete acceptability questionnaires after each visit. Participants are randomised to receive their cognitive test results either after each visit or only after they have completed the study. We will combine SPeAK data with AD biomarker data collected in a previous study and analyse for correlations between extracted speech features and AD biomarkers. The outcome of this analysis will inform the development of an algorithm for prediction of AD risk based on speech features. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the Edinburgh Medical School Research Ethics Committee (REC reference 20-EMREC-007). All participants will provide informed consent before completing any study-related procedures, participants must have capacity to consent to participate in this study. Participants may find the tests, or receiving their scores, causes anxiety or stress. Previous exposure to similar tests may make this more familiar and reduce this anxiety. The study information will include signposting in case of distress. Study results will be disseminated to study participants, presented at conferences and published in a peer reviewed journal. No study participants will be identifiable in the study results

2018 Alumni Achievement Awards Presentation

2018 Alumni Achievement Awards presentation

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes